Breeze CEO predicts Frontier-Spirit merger, eyes more first-class seats — and teases first international destinations

20.01.2025 - 20:13 / thepointsguy.com / David Neeleman / Scott Kirby

Could Frontier Airlines and Spirit Airlines eventually merge, after all?

"That's my prediction," the CEO of a competing low-cost airline told TPG.

Talks have swirled for years about the possibility of the nation's two leading budget carriers joining forces.

Spirit and Frontier explored merging in 2022, but Spirit backed out of the talks to instead pursue a marriage with JetBlue — a deal ultimately blocked in court by the Biden administration.

Then, late last year, The Wall Street Journal reported that the airlines had reignited acquisition talks. However, the deal reportedly fell apart days before Spirit announced it had filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Spirit's financial turmoil — owed to mounting debt, sagging revenue and a myriad of other factors — came in the midst of a tumultuous run for budget airlines overall.

In recent years, the lower-cost end of the U.S. airline sector has lost ground to the larger "legacy" carriers, which boast the long-haul international routes scores of travelers are craving right now. Not to mention, larger carriers offer amenities like premium cabins, lie-flat seats and those highly lucrative frequent flyer and credit card programs that have played an outsize role in profitability since the coronavirus pandemic.

Some in the industry — United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby, most vociferously — have predicted the demise of some budget airlines, particularly Frontier and Spirit. These carriers have long been known for offering ultra-low base fares but adding on charges for most other inflight services.

In a wide-ranging interview last month with TPG, fellow low-cost airline executive David Neeleman, CEO of Breeze Airways, offered his own take.

"I think Spirit and Frontier will survive," Neeleman said. "But, I think it'd be a lot easier if they'd merge. If they become one."

Asked if he'd outright predict a future merger between the two carriers, Neeleman didn't mince words: "Yes," he said.

Both airlines have repeatedly declined to comment on any lingering merger or acquisition talks. It may also be worth noting that the incoming Trump administration is widely expected to take a less stringent regulatory posture than the administration before it, perhaps encouraging another attempt at consolidation.

Either way, Neeleman said he generally agrees with a blunt assessment United's Kirby has made about the state of the U.S. airline industry — namely, about the Chicago-based carrier's advantage over budget carriers (of which Breeze is one).

Repeatedly in 2024, Kirby asserted United's "structural, permanent and irreversible" advantage in the industry — along with that of Delta Air Lines.

Now that major carriers have mostly eliminated change fees and have added their own types