Airline Revenue Success Comes With Cost Distress
25.08.2023 - 14:18
/ skift.com
/ Ed Bastian
/ Delta Ceo
/ Carsten Spohr
/ Airlines
Travelers surged back to planes last year in numbers unseen since the beginning of the pandemic. That was good news for airlines that, facing a myriad of challenges, were unable to resume flights quite as fast, which drove up fares — and revenues too. It also, however, brought an unwelcome surge in costs.
Now, in 2023, the airline industry must deal with these twin countervailing forces — rising revenues and costs — that will shape the pace of its recovery.
Make no mistake, demand for air travel is scorching hot in most major markets around the world. This is even true with corporate demand still well short of where it was prior to the Covid crisis. Airlines have managed to turn this into record revenues: up 13 percent compared to 2019 in the third quarter at American Airlines, 11 percent at Delta Air Lines, and flat at the Lufthansa Group all on less or significantly less capacity than they flew three years before. Ticket prices are high and cargo revenues are up, all while ancillary revenue streams are growing.
American Airlines Q3 revenues vs. same period in 2019
Delta Air Lines Q3 revenues vs. same period in 2019
Lufthansa Group Q3 revenues vs. same period in 2019
Of course, there are risks to this revenue boom. The big one is the prospect of a global economic recession. Though most airline executives have brushed off this concern, and Delta CEO Ed Bastian has gone as far as to call travel “countercyclical” to economic outlook. Then there’s the China question: If and when its large airline market will normalize. Thus far, China is the only major market that has not bounced back robustly.
To be clear, the industry’s current pricing might does not stem just from voracious demand alone. That’s clearly a major driver but also important is constrained supply. Airlines have been unable to meet the sharp and sudden return of travelers because of a shortage of people, planes, and property. Lufthansa Group CEO Carsten Spohr, speaking in October, said the global industry was being “forced” to fly less than it otherwise would given the amount people want to travel. And it wasn’t just airlines: The rest of the aviation ecosystem faced a similar struggles, from planemakers to airports and air traffic control organizations.
Singapore Airlines provides a telling example. Its revenues from April-to-September 2022 were up 1 percent versus the same six months of 2019, even as its capacity was down 31 percent! Bottlenecks have eased since last summer, yet the problem persists — Boeing and Airbus for example are still behind on deliveries, meaning airlines still can’t expand as much as they’d like.
There’s a dark side to all of this. Supply-side messiness, including labor shortages, are costly. So are constraints