Analysts Paint a Mixed Picture for Hotel Companies in 2023
25.08.2023 - 14:28
/ skift.com
/ Sean Oneill
Here are some excerpts from Daily Lodging Report by Alan Woinski from the past week. If you’re not a subscriber, you should be. Get news on hotel deals, development, stocks, and career moves. Sign up here, now.
Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc. expects to report occupancy of approximately 64% for the fourth quarter of 2022 with an ADR (average daily rate) of approximately $469 resulting in RevPAR (revenue per available room) of approximately $301. This RevPAR reflects an approximate increase of 8% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 and an approximate increase of 20% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. Additionally, for the month of December 2022, RevPAR increased by approximately 26% versus December 2019. In the month of November, RevPAR increased approximately 15% versus November 2019 and in the month of October 2022, RevPAR increased approximately 14% versus October 2019.
Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc. expects to report occupancy of approximately 68% for the fourth quarter of 2022 with an ADR of approximately $175 resulting in RevPAR of approximately $118. This RevPAR reflects an approximate increase of 25% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 and a decrease of approximately 1% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. Additionally, for the month of December 2022, RevPAR was essentially unchanged versus December 2019. For the month of November 2022, RevPAR decreased approximately 2% versus November 2019 and for the month of October 2022, RevPAR decreased approximately 1% versus October 2019.
Skift Note: Ahead of earnings season, company forecasts and analysts predictions are a scattergram so far. Some positive, some neutral, and some pessimistic.
Jefferies downgraded both Marriott and Hilton to Hold, leaving only Wyndham, with a Buy rating in their C-Corp coverage. They continue to favor Host Hotels and Hersha Hospitality on market exposures, demand mix and balance sheet strength. Jefferies’ downgrade was based on macro concerns and that with most aspects of the recovery played out and a looming recession, the upside to earnings and valuation for bellwether stocks is limited.
Hilton announced the opening of Conrad Singapore Orchard, its second Conrad Hotel & Resorts property in Singapore, joining Conrad Centennial Singapore. The hotel includes 10 restaurants and bars and 14 event spaces. From now until late 2023, the hotel’s 440 rooms will undergo extensive reinvention and refurbishment and will fully open in early 2024.
Skift Note: See more reports from JP Morgan, Truist, and Baird below.
JP Morgan gave their 2023 lodging outlook presentation, saying they see the REITs (real-estate investment trusts) as relative underperformers versus the C-Corps. They see Wyndham Hotels and Hyatt Hotels as