How Iceland’s Imminent Volcanic Eruption Could Disrupt Travel In Europe

17.11.2023 - 14:11 / forbes.com

Over several weeks, thousands of small earthquakes have shaken Iceland, splitting pavements, spurring evacuations and even shutting down the country’s most popular tourist attraction, as the country braces for the eruption of a volcano within 20 miles of the country’s main international airport.

“The chance of an eruption has increased,” the Icelandic Meteorological Office warned on Friday. “Can start anytime in the next few days.”

Two thousand earthquakes have been recorded in just the last 24 hours. “Most are small earthquakes below 1 magnitude,” the agency wrote in Friday’s update, “but this morning at 6.35 an earthquake was measured at Hagafell with a magnitude of 3.0.”

The Fagradalsfjall volcano on the Reykjanes Peninsula in southwestern Iceland is located near Grindavík, a fishing town around 31 miles southwest of the capital of Reykjavik and just 16 miles from Keflavík airport, the country’s largest airport and the main hub for international flights.

If an eruption is large enough, it could potentially disrupt air travel for days or weeks—and not just over Iceland. When Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull volcano erupted in 2010, persistent northerly winds carried giant plumes of volcanic ash to continental Europe. Over 100,000 flights were cancelled over several weeks, affecting 7 million passengers and shaving $4.7 billion off the global economy, including $1.7 billion in lost revenue to airlines, according to an analysis by Oxford Economics.

On Monday, the Accuweather Global Weather Center warned of the potential for impacts to air travel over the coming weeks. “Volcanic ash, if ingested in sufficient quantities, can result in jet engine failure – a serious threat to planes,” said Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist. “As a result, during the 2010 eruption, as the ash cloud spread, civil aviation authorities in various countries shut down air travel, resulting in many travelers from Europe and beyond becoming stuck for weeks on end with no ability to fly.”

Since Eyjafjallajökull erupted in 2010, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) says it is now better prepared for a major volcanic ash event and is monitoring the current Fagradalsfjall situation. “In the event of an eruption and development of an ash cloud, the agency will work with other aviation actors to assess the impact for aviation and make recommendations accordingly,” according to a statement on EASA’s website.

As of Friday, Iceland Air says the ongoing seismic activity in the Southwest region of Iceland “has not affected” flights to or from Iceland. “We are in close contact with Icelandic authorities and are monitoring the situation closely,” per the carrier’s travel alert.

Iceland’s tourism authority is also