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Airbnb's NYC Listings Fall 77%, Big Hotelier Sees 'Tailwind'
13.09.2023 - 19:31 / skift.com / Dennis Schaal
What impact would Airbnb’s diminishing New York City footprint have for hotels? One major hotel operator in the city believes the shortfall will contribute to a significant “tailwind” for hotels in 2024.
That forecast comes as Airbnb’s New York City listings for short-term stays — defined as fewer than 30 days — plummeted 77% from June 4 to September 10, which is nearly a week since stringent host registration rules went into effect, according to data that AirDNA provided to Skift.
And while Airbnb’s short-term rental listings fell to 4,600 from 22,500 three months earlier, listings for stays of 30 days or longer soared 48% to 34,900, and they now dominate the market, encompassing 87% of Airbnb’s total NYC listings, according to AirDNA. [See charts below.]
“We are bullish on New York and we view this as a tailwind,” said the C-suite official at a major NYC hotel operator, referring to the host registration requirements and new enforcement regime that kicked in September 5.
This top executive, who declined to be identified, is not an Airbnb hater. In fact, the hotelier tested selling hotel rooms from a half dozen of the company’s NYC properties through Airbnb, and one of them was generating about $100,000 in revenue per month, he said. [See more on these tests below.]
The hotelier pointed out that major hotel analytics firms were already forecasting about a 10% increase in revenue per available room for New York City hotels in 2024 versus pre-pandemic 2019. He thinks that growth could reasonably be 13% to 16% given the clampdown on Airbnb listings.
Not everyone in the hotel industry agrees. Some hoteliers argue that Airbnb’s inventory numbers are too low to have a big impact and that Airbnb merely handcuffs hotel pricing power during peak periods like holidays or major events.
The hotelier Skift spoke to cited other factors that would contribute to the 2024 tailwind, including a slowdown in the hotel development pipeline, hotel closures because of the pandemic, as well as properties being taken off the commercial market to house migrants.
Regarding the makeup of Airbnb’s current listings in the five boroughs, the first chart below depicts the sharp rise in Airbnb listings for long-term rentals, starting about a month before the registration rules kicked in, and the accompanying rapid drop in Airbnb listings for shorter stays.
This second chart displays the listing property types — entire apartments and homes used for long-term stays, entire homes and apartments set up for short-term stays, private rooms for long-term stays, private rooms for short-term stays, shared rooms for long-term stays, and shared rooms for short-term stays.
Two things should be pointed out about the current dominance of
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