Airfare shouldn’t spike again this summer, but don’t expect steep discounts either

15.04.2024 - 12:35 / thepointsguy.com / Hayley Berg / Airlines

After a volatile few years for airfare, prices this summer should be a bit more predictable thanks to stabilizing supply and demand, experts say.

In fact, whether you're planning to fly within the U.S. or overseas, you may have better luck finding a good deal than you did a year or two ago.

At the same time, those hoping for smaller crowds at airports and tourist hot spots may be waiting awhile, as all signs point to another busy summer travel season — both at U.S. airports and overseas.

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Domestic airfare has been on something of a roller coaster ever since the start of the coronavirus pandemic more than four years ago.

In 2020 and early 2021, fares dropped as airports emptied out, with travelers staying home. Then, prices surged as demand, fuel costs and overall inflation did the same in 2022. At the same time, demand from travelers exceeded the supply — of flights and seats — airlines could offer.

But if you found yourself booking a trip late last year to North America's most popular leisure destinations like Orlando, Las Vegas or Cancun, Mexico, you may have found a bargain.

In fact, airlines added so many flights to those cities and some others — too many, in the eyes of some industry analysts — that supply and demand drove fares down, prompting some carriers (like Frontier Airlines and Spirit Airlines) to pivot in recent months, shifting planes to other parts of the country in search of higher profits.

When it comes to the domestic airfare picture this summer, how does a little stability sound?

"We expect summer 2024 to be similar to last year in terms of demand and pricing," Hayley Berg, lead economist at booking app Hopper, told TPG.

Average domestic, round-trip airfare for June currently sits at roughly $303, Hopper noted in its most recent consumer travel index published last week. Average round-trip routes are trending lower for July ($282) and August ($267).

In keeping with recent months' trends, you may be able to score an even cheaper deal if you're headed to Walt Disney World or South Beach in Miami Beach, Florida, or if you're planning to take advantage of Marriott Bonvoy's growing presence along the Las Vegas Strip.

"Current airfare as of this week to Orlando, Miami, Las Vegas and most other top domestic destinations remains lower than at this time last year, and in 2022," Berg said.

At the same time, ultra-cheap one-way fares to Orlando or Las Vegas are of little help if you're planning a trip to, say, Chicago or Seattle.

To that end, when taking the whole country into account, experts don't expect overall fares to drop much more, either — at least not significantly. Again, the expectation is that