BCD Travel reveals 2024 travel outlook
05.12.2023 - 08:38
/ traveldailynews.com
/ Theodore Koumelis
Q4 Travel Market Report predicts 0.8% drop in global airfares and 6.8% increase in hotel rates.
UTRECHT, THE NETHERLANDS – Leading travel management company BCD Travel published the fourth edition of its quarterly Travel Market Report. The Q4 report, dedicated to presenting an outlook for 2024, provides travel managers and buyers with insights on economic prospects, key risks, projected prices for air, hotel and car rental, sustainable travel trends, and more.
Some highlights from the report that corporate travel programs need to consider:
world economy has managed to confound most forecasters during 2023. But the foundations for future growth may not be as stable as they seem. Even if the economy continues to defy concerns, specific risks that could undermine or derail growth include persistent high interest rates, bond market developments and geopolitical issues.
In addition to these macro risks, BCD’s Global Crisis Management team has outlined several key risks that may impact business travel, such as climate change, cybersecurity, geopolitics, health, polarized politics and rising crime. As part of their Travel Risk Management program, travel managers should not only monitor risks, but also stay abreast of any changes to legislation that might directly affect their travelers.
Recovery in air travel isn’t synchronized around the world. As a result, the factors driving changes to airfares in 2024 will vary by market. In some cases, demand or capacity haven’t yet returned to pre-pandemic levels; in others, the initial rebound may have ended, allowing more normal market conditions to resurface.
Globally, average ticket prices (ATPs) are expected to decrease by 0.8% in 2024. Regional fares should fall by 0.9% and intercontinental fares by 0.5%. At 1.2%, the forecasted fall in global business fares should be steeper than the 0.8% easing expected for economy tickets.
Asia, Europe, Latin America and Southwest Pacific can expect to see ATPs fall by more than 2%. Higher average airfares are only likely in Africa and North America, but the increase in ATPs in these two markets is estimated to be less than 1%.
“Over the past two years, airfares have increased significantly,” said Jorge Cruz, Executive Vice President of Global Sales & Marketing at BCD. “As a result, using savings as a performance measure has been almost impossible for travel buyers. We advise companies to review their travel policies and their travelers’ booking behaviors to lower the overall cost of their travel programs.”
Global hotel rates are expected to rise by 6.8% on average in 2024. Even as the pace of recovery shows signs of slowing, demand will continue to outpace available supply in many markets. Although numerous projects are