Fall flight deals before Labor Day? School keeps starting earlier, and airlines are taking notice

16.08.2024 - 19:55 / thepointsguy.com / Ryan Green

Summer isn't over just yet: As much of the country scorches under stifling heat waves, two weeks still remain until Labor Day weekend marks the unofficial end of summer. But for some airlines, the peak domestic summer travel season is already winding down. In some pockets of the country, summer might as well have ended a few weeks ago.

All of that could be good news for travelers with a little flexibility in their schedules. Opportunities abound to snag a good fare or award redemption — even on a last-minute trip.

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All of this would seem to defy conventional wisdom. Doesn't the peak summer travel season run through all of August? Isn't booking last-minute flights a surefire way to overspend?

Traditionally, yes.

In recent years, however, airlines have adjusted to a trend millions of parents (and students) already knew about: School starts a lot earlier in many parts of the country.

The shift of "back to school" has become so widespread that airline executives have taken notice. They have started rethinking conventional wisdom about prime vacation season.

"In our markets, a third of schools were back in session the second week of August. That's double what it was prepandemic," Southwest Airlines Chief Commercial Officer Ryan Green told financial analysts on an earnings call last October. He noted how the changes meant more empty seats during the summer's final weeks.

Read more: Southwest Rapid Rewards: Complete guide to earning, redeeming and maximizing points

"Anyone that has kids, you usually don't travel the week before your kids go back to school," Green pointed out. "So, that kind of wipes all of August out for a third of our markets."

Southwest deployed big changes this summer, partly reflecting the new thinking on vacation.

The airline is flying roughly 11% fewer seats from its base at Houston's William P. Hobby Airport (HOU) this month compared to July, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium.

In comparison, the airline's seats out of Hobby actually increased from July to August last year. In 2019, the last prepandemic year, seats were about even across the two months.

It's a similar story for Southwest in Denver, where the airline's total number of seats in August will be down 11% from July, per Cirium. Southwest similarly reduced the number of seats in August compared to July by at least 8% departing from Chicago, Dallas and St. Louis.

Southwest offers a stark example of this trend, but it's far from alone.

Last month, Delta Air Lines executives pointed to shifting school calendars as one reason that August travel would be less profitable for the carrier than in past years.

"As a matter of