Go Time: Airfares Are Dipping, But Low Prices Won’t Last Long

09.08.2023 - 15:41 / forbes.com / Hayley Berg / Long

In the travel industry, nothing signals the end of summer like shoulder-season airfares. Domestic roundtrip airfares have already started to dip, down 2% from an average of $274 in July to $267 in August, according to Hopper’s latest pricing data released Tuesday.

That’s 7% lower than August 2022 and 10% lower than this month in 2019. The upshot for bargain hunters untied to school schedules: Now is a great time to take a trip.

Several factors are driving domestic airfare prices downward, points out Hayley Berg, Hopper’s lead economist. Notably, U.S. airlines have recovered capacity, flying 5% more seats this summer than in 2019.

In addition, the price of jet fuel, which had spiked to a high of $4.16 per gallon following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, fell to an average of $2.86 per gallon by the end of July 2023, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

“Prices have seen considerable improvement over the last year, and are currently 27% lower than at the end of July 2022,” Berg writes, adding that it’s all relative. “Though fuel costs have improved considerably in the last 12 months, prices remain the highest they’ve been since late 2014.”

Hopper is forecasting that airfares will slowly creep upward throughout autumn, staying below 2019 levels until late November, when they will nearly match pre-pandemic levels through Christmas. Domestic fares will peak over the holiday period at around $283 per ticket as travelers book last-minute Thanksgiving and Christmas trips.

Looking to leave the country? Getting to Europe is considerably cheaper now compared to peak summer. A good deal for a roundtrip flight to Europe is averaging $813, which is 7% higher than pre-pandemic fares but significantly cheaper than early July, when airfare from the U.S. to Europe was averaging a hefty $1,371.

Setting your sights on Asia, on the other hand, is still a pricey proposition. Demand for travel to Asia is extremely hot, with Japan, Taiwan and South Korea dominating Hopper’s trending destinations. A good deal on a roundtrip flight from the U.S. is $1,417 — a whopping 59% more expensive than in 2019, according to data from Hopper. That works out to about $525 more per ticket. “Until capacity is unlocked on these trans-Pacific routes, prices will remain elevated,” writes Berg.

Meanwhile, South America is the biggest bargain of all right now. From the U.S., roundtrip airfare is currently averaging $707, down 14% from last year and 16% from pre-pandemic 2019.