Middle East Tourism Set to Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels in 2023

In the second quarter of 2023, the Middle East’s hotel construction pipeline has seen significant growth, marking its highest project count since the first quarter of 2020, according to Lodging Econometric’s Middle East Hotel Construction Pipeline Trend Report.

The United Arab Emirates government on Sunday announced the lifting of all precautionary measures implemented in the country during Covid-19. With the lifting of restrictions, wearing of masks has now been made optional in all open and closed facilities, including places of worship and mosques. However, those categorized as “people of determination” would be required to wear mask while visiting health facilities and centers. The Al Hosn app would now only be required to furnish proof of vaccination and for test results inside and outside the country, when required. The green pass on the app would no longer be required to enter public facilities and sites. The requirement of a polymerase chain reaction test would also no longer be made mandatory for those attending or participating at sporting events. The authorities said they have decided to ease the restrictions after studying the epidemiological situation in the country and having monitored occupancy rates in hospitals and intensive care for Covid cases.

Saudi Arabia’s increasing focus in the tourism sector and the shift to leisure travel has brought Seera Group from the red to report the company’s first post-pandemic operating profit of $8 million in the third quarter.

Good morning from Skift. It’s Tuesday, January 10, and here’s what you need to know about the business of travel today.

The Middle East is leading international travel recovery in the fourth quarter as inbound arrivals to the region witnessed an increase of 4 percent, long ahead of the global average of a decrease of 30 percent, according to travel analytics firm ForwardKeys. “The FIFA World Cup is certainly the key driver for its travel recovery,” said Juan Gomez, head of market intelligence at ForwardKeys. The latest air ticketing data by ForwardKeys also shows that international arrival levels may be back to normal in 2023, with travel to the Middle East up by 15 percent on pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter. Overall, the outlook for 2023 looks promising, despite high inflation in key source markets and the looming recession, FowardKeys noted. The Middle East is also attracting more premium travellers than in 2019, the travel analytics firm noted with Saudi Arabia showing the greatest growth. Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon are also showing growth, with a regional average of 11  percent above 2019.

India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country later this year, as China begins to decline and India’s population growth shows no sign of slowing until 2064. That shift carries huge implications for travel across the globe, and has the potential to rewire the race for attracting global tourists around the world. Skift addressed this in its Megatrends 2023 package in the story India Becoming the New China in the Reordering of Asia Travel.

Dubai has yet again revealed its plans to connect the city through flying taxis and expects to launch aerial taxi operations by 2026.

Hotel development in the Middle East is ramping up as investors begin to see opportunity in the region again, according to Lodging Econometrics’ Middle East Construction Pipeline Trend Report. The report said new project announcements in the region continued to trend upward throughout 2022 closing the fourth quarter of 2022 with 67 new projects housing 19,837 rooms, an increase of 56 percent year-on-year. The fourth quarter also witnessed 33 new hotels accounting for 6,452 rooms open in the region. Overall, 2022 saw a record number of hotels openings with 81 hotels accounting for 17,736 rooms. Lodging Econometrics’ forecast for new hotel openings in 2023 is 123 new hotels with 30,113 rooms while 116 new hotels and 29,085 rooms are forecast to open in 2024. Countries in the Middle East with the greatest number of projects in the construction pipeline at the close of fourth quarter were Saudi Arabia with 243 projects and 67,618 rooms, followed by the United Arab Emirates with 104 projects and 29,210 rooms. Egypt came third with record high project and room counts of 87 projects and 21,672 rooms.

Despite a sluggish international travel market, the pace of recovery in the Middle East aviation market accelerated throughout 2022 and is expected to take off over the next 10 years with the region’s share of the global fleet set to expand. In its “Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast 2023-2033,” global management consulting firm Oliver Wyman noted that the Middle East remains among the fastest-growing aviation markets in the world, with the regional fleet set to expand 5.1 percent annually over the next decade. The report further noted that the Middle East’s share of global fleet will grow over the decade from 4.9 percent in 2023 to 6 percent in 2033.  Meanwhile, the global fleet is projected to expand one-third by 2033, to well over 36,000 aircraft, with Oliver Wyman also anticipating a record number of aircraft deliveries over the next 10 years (despite current supply chain constraints). The Middle East fleet’s growth over the next decade will primarily be driven by the addition of narrow bodies. Historically, the Middle Eastern fleet has been primarily made up of widebodies. But moving forward, the report observed that narrow bodies will increase to 48 percent of the fleet from 39 percent, while wide bodies will decline to 48 percent from 56 percent.

Jumeirah Hotels is keen to invest in more properties in Europe. Having recently acquired Le Richemond in Switzerland’s Lake Geneva, Jumeirah with a 26-property portfolio now has five hotels in Europe.

The Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions are expected to account for 58 percent of the global air passenger demand in 2040. Aviation market intelligence CAPA — Centre for Aviation has region-wise listed the total numbers of the airport project and the volume of investment include 155 in Middle East worth $209 billion. Airports in the Middle East will need to invest $151 billion in capacity expansion as the global air passenger demand is expected to increase more than two-fold in 2040. With over 110 airports, the Middle East is already among the fastest growing in the world, accounting for 170 million of the global traffic. Close to 19.7 billion passengers are expected to traverse the world’s airports by 2040, according to the Airport Council International and the Middle East airports will handle 1.1 billion passengers by 2040 — a significant increase from 2019’s 405 million. In the United Arab Emirates, the New Sharjah International Airport expansion, with an approximate cost of $517 million, will get completed by the fourth quarter of 2024. Kuwait Airport is expanding its passenger terminal 2 to handle 13 million passengers, at an estimated cost of $4.36 billion. In Qatar, Hamad International Airport Phase 2B’s expansion work on the passenger terminal is expected to commence this year and will enhance passenger capacity to more than 60 million annually. Saudi Arabia is set to build one of the world’s largest airports which will have six parallel runways. The airport will help drive annual passenger traffic to 120 million by 2030 and 185 million by 2050.

Sustainability is becoming an increasingly important consideration within the Middle East’s luxury travel sector, especially in the United Arab Emirates where 61 percent of residents say they are willing to pay a premium for more responsible, eco-friendly and sustainable tourism experiences, according to YouGov’s Global Travel and Tourism Whitepaper 2023. One in 10 consumers has stayed in luxury eco-friendly accommodation during the past three years, the whitepaper found. This trend is especially prevalent among high-income travelers, whose sustainable luxury hotel stays have increased by 50 percent during the same period. The United Arab Emirates topped global rankings in terms of the value placed on exploring, with 58 percent of respondents reporting that travel has become more important to them since the Covid-19 pandemic. In terms of luxury travel priorities, a quarter of those living in the country are looking for great entertainment, whereas 19 percent place the biggest emphasis on premium-quality accommodation when booking trips.