Forecast tips

Skift Research’s Travel Health Index continued to track above 2019 levels in July, with a 2 point increase from July 2019, according to our latest monthly update.

This was the year that all the occupancy gains from the short-term rental boom went away. Demand for short-term rentals declined in the U.S. as Americans opted for overseas trips and cruises.

Following recent announcements from Delta and United that they would cut back on flights between the U.S. and U.K., American has hinted that it, too, is expecting diminished demand to Europe over the coming months.

Airlines for America, the trade group representing the interests of U.S. airlines, is predicting that 15.6 million travelers will fly during the Labor Day weekend (Wednesday, August 31 – Tuesday, September 6). That’s a 4 percent increase over last year’s 15 million Labor Day flyers.

Long lines, full flights, niggling fees for everything: Welcome to the new normal when it comes to air travel. While the flights can’t get much fuller, and there are few new opportunities to charge extra for non-basic services, those long lines are going to get longer before they get shorter.

This is shaping up to be a record year, and the travel forecast for Thanksgiving 2016 is showing higher numbers than in the past nine years. AAA forecasts that there will be 48.7 million people in transit this year, an increase of one million compared to last year.

Airlines for America is the organization that is paid to represent the interests of U.S. airlines. So when it forecasts record numbers of passengers traveling this spring, it’s meant to be taken as a compliment to the industry, a positive reflection on the airlines’ ability to deliver air travel at an attractive price. In A4A’s view, “The continued growth in passenger volumes can be attributed to the accessibility and affordability of air travel today. To meet the extra demand, airlines are deploying new and larger aircraft on many routes.”

Looking to avoid the holiday crowds? Then plan on staying close to home this Independence Day weekend, because record numbers of Americans will be clogging the nation’s highways and airport security checkpoints.

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and lasts through November 30. Fortunately, this year is predicted to be better than last year’s, which saw an unusually high number of devastating hurricanes. (If you’re planning travel to an area hit during the 2017 season, make sure to read our Caribbean Travel Update).

Wondering how hectic the high season of summer travel will make the skies? Summer air travel will raise 3.7 percent above last year’s summer travel figure to set another all-time record, Airlines for America announced, with the U.S. expected to see an average of 2.68 million air travelers per day.