Paris is expected to welcome 11.3 million visitors during the Olympic Games, significantly increasing its population density. This surge in visitors is spurring travel demand to international destinations, such as Italy and the United States, that harness this desire to leave crowds behind, also benefiting United Kingdom, Spain, and Greece, as well as farther destinations, such as Thailand or Japan.
Hurricane Beryl: Climate perception plummets and threatens short-term demand to the Caribbean
12.07.2024 - 23:15 / breakingtravelnews.com / Carlos Cendra
The effects of Hurricane Beryl are already being felt in the tourist demand for Caribbean destinations, as indicated by the global travel intelligence platform Mabrian, part of The Data Appeal group, an effect that is evident both in the climate perception and in the short-term demand to travel to these destinations.
For this analysis, Mabrian has focused on five destinations exposed to the impact of this and future hurricanes (Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Mexican Caribbean, Cuba and Puerto Rico, comparing how their Perception of Climate Index (PCI, for its acronym) varied in the last week, and in respect to the same week in 2023. This indicator measures the effect of the weather conditions on visitor satisfaction during their stay in a destination, based on expectations about their experience.
Mexican Caribbean suffers the most short-term impact
The data indicate that the Perception of Climate Index of the Mexican Caribbean is the most affected by the threat of Hurricane Beryl, reflecting the expected effects when passing through this territory. In fact, the index loses 33.8% in just one week, going from 65 points to 43, out of 100 possible.
This indicator also suffers in the case of Jamaica, which loses 24.7% since last week. last week, falling from 89 to 67 points out of 100 possible. Meanwhile, the Dominican Republic (-3.5%), Cuba (-3.4%) and Puerto Rico (-4.7%) also experienced less dramatic declines in their PCI since last week, given that the weather forecast does not estimate that Beryl will fully affect these destinations, although the weather will worsen.
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As an example, Carlos Cendra, Partner and Director of Marketing and Communications at Mabrian, points out that “the drop in the climate perception is affecting flight searches from the United States to Cancun, falling by around 20% in the last four days, to travel from July 1st to July 7th”. Such trend could affect “other relevant markets for this destination, forcing to stay vigilant throughout the season, to protect demand forecasts in complex months to come, in terms of meteorology.”
Taking into account that hurricanes and other extreme phenomena generate concern among travellers due to their destructive and lethal potential, understanding this sensitivity in each key source market, from data intelligence perspective, is crucial for authorities. “With the data in hand, destinations can design outreach and emergency plans tailored to the sensitivity of the various source markets. It is about disseminating messages aimed at potential tourists, so that they do not rule out traveling to these destinations; and to those who are already visiting, addressing their expectations, concerns, and needs,” Cendra explains.
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