Total Solar Eclipse: This Is How To Find Clear Weather, Say Experts

01.04.2024 - 20:51 / forbes.com

Texas is the best place for the total solar eclipse, right? It has a higher chance of clear skies. Whether that holds true or the presumed-to-be-cloudy northeast U.S. and Canada are now back in play is up in the air.

The climate is now unimportant. All that matters for eclipse-chasers is the weather forecasts, which are worth reading from today—seven days out from Monday, April 8’s total solar eclipse—for the first time.

“What makes the best observing location is, firstly, somewhere in the path of totality,” said Dr. Tyler Nordgren, an Ithaca, New York-based astronomer, author of Sun Moon Earth and eclipse artist at Space Art Travel Bureau, in an interview. “Provided you’re in the path totality, the best location is wherever it’s clear,” said Nordgren.

Finding a clear sky is going to be the trick for this eclipse—here’s how to do that.

Most supercomputer models run today forecast Texas and Arkansas to be the cloudiest parts of the path of totality on April 8. The clearest skies are, seven days out, forecast for lakes Erie and Ontario in northeastern Ohio and Western New York, as well as in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

This is the exact opposite of what climate statistics hint at, but almost exactly what happened on April 8, 2023.

Probably—but it’s now hard to resist. “If you have the luxury of being able to travel at the last minute, I highly recommend looking at weather models when they tend to solidify, which is about three days out,” said Nordgren. “Around April 1, certainly by April 5, look at the weather models of where’s going to be cloudy and where’s going to be clear—and go to wherever is clear the path in totality.”

Whatever the forecasts say today, consider making preparations to move and/or be mobile on April 8. It may be necessary to relocate on the day of the eclipse. Where will you go? Perhaps you won’t go anywhere, choosing to stay with Plan A and receive whatever nature throws at you with glee. However, you'll need wheels if you’re intent on maximizing your chances of a clear sky. You’ll need to get up incredibly early (try two hours before you think). And you’ll need to know where to go looking for a clear sky.

Study historical satellite imagery of cloud cover and there’s a clear lesson. “You may see that the chances of a clear sky for a specific location are slim, but you’ll also see that if you had a 100-mile range, you would have been able to see the eclipse on eight out of the last 10 years,” said Jay Anderson, who plans eclipse expeditions and whose climatological analysis of eclipse tracks on his website Eclipsophile is avidly read by eclipse chasers.

It’s important to know that the priority here is to avoid low cloud. High cirrus cloud is not so much of a problem — you’ll