Our 2023 credit card predictions and trends: What did we get right and wrong?

28.12.2023 - 23:21 / thepointsguy.com / Credit Card

A year ago, we made our best guesses at what would happen with credit card rewards in 2023.

The past year has been filled with innovative developments — and persistent challenges — in the credit card industry.

Let's take a moment to revisit the predictions we made at the start of the year and assess their accuracy.

2021 and 2022 saw much more lucrative welcome offers than this year.

Of our top 10 most popular credit cards, the Chase Sapphire Preferred® Card, The Platinum Card® from American Express and the mid-tier Citi Premier® Card (see rates and fees) featured lower welcome offers for most of 2023 compared to the previous year. While there have been continued targeted offers for select Amex cards through the CardMatch tool (subject to change at any time), there were very few publicly available and best-ever welcome bonuses.

However, some of Chase's cards have been the exception.

The Chase Freedom Unlimited® launched a special double cash back offer in October. On the business side, we've seen a repeat of the best-ever offers on the Ink Business Cash® Credit Card and Ink Business Unlimited® Credit Card, as well as an almost halving of the spending requirement to earn a 100,000-point bonus on the Ink Business Preferred® Credit Card (you now must spend $8,000 on purchases in the first three months of account opening).

With continued economic uncertainty and stubbornly high interest rates, consumers have been shifting away from premium cards like the Capital One Venture X Rewards Credit Card to cards offering cash back, attractive balance transfer rates, and zero or low interest on purchases.

Total debt on credit cards hit $1 trillion for the first time in the second quarter of 2023, reaching an all-time high of $1.08 trillion in Q3.

As a result, consumers are concerned with paying down debt and shifting to credit cards that offer more tangible and immediate cash-back and interest-saving benefits.

Related: How to consolidate and pay off your debt

We haven't seen a significant increase in the number of buy now, pay later (BNPL) offerings like PayPal Credit, Afterpay and Klarna in 2023. However, usage of these services has increased.

According to Bankrate, 10% of consumers planned to use BNPL services for winter holiday shopping in 2023.

C+R Research has found that BNPL offerings are more popular among women (compared to men), renters (vs. homeowners) and Gen Zers and Millennials (vs. Gen Xers and Boomers).

Consumers remain wary of receiving crypto rewards like Bitcoin and Ethereum when spending cash on daily purchases. That's despite most top cryptocurrencies remaining stable or increasing in value in 2023, following the 2022 cryptocurrency crash.

Related: A round-up of cards that earn cryptocurrency