Recovery, Resilience and Loss - A Review of key African hotel markets 2021 by HTI Consulting

27.11.2023 - 09:47 / traveldailynews.com / Tatiana Rokou

The UNWTO frequently surveys tourism experts across continents in order to understand their views on when key tourism markets will recover to 2019 levels. In May 2021, 45% of African tourism experts surveyed projected the continent would recover to 2019 levels by the end of 2023. A similar survey in January 2022 highlighted that only 33% of experts saw recovery occurring in 2023, with 50% anticipating recovery in 2024 or later.

“Whilst some African hotel markets have a long way to go in terms of recovery and regrouping, others have shown remarkable fortitude and resilience and provide hope that ‘normal’ conditions will once again prevail in the hospitality sector in Africa,” says HTI Consulting CEO, Wayne Troughton.

“Throughout 2020 and into 2021, as wave after wave of Covid-19 infections continued to spread across the globe, hotels struggled to achieve sustainable levels of demand. Hoteliers and their staff have, however, been adaptable and resourceful over the period and quite a few of the properties that contributed to STR in 2019 have therefore continued to do so in 2021,” says Troughton. “It is encouraging to witness the resilience of some of the key African cities as well as the boost in performances in the months leading up to the end of the year.”

The below Review of the 2021 year sees HTI Consulting compare the performances of 2021 with those of 2019 to identify the rate of recovery in key Southern, Western and East African markets.

Southern Africa
Occupancy Recovery Rates
Umhlanga showed the strongest occupancy recovery rate across Southern African markets currently contributing to STR. With an average occupancy of 48.1% for 2021, occupancy for October and November was sitting at 65%, peaking at 71% in December. Recovery rates over these three months ranged from 86% to 92%.

With an occupancy rate of 25,2% in 2021, Lusaka’s recovery is at 54% when compared to 2019 occupancy (54%).

Cape Town’s recovery is at a similar level (53%) with an average occupancy of 34.9% for 2021 vs. 65.3% in 2019. From October 2021 occupancy levels were pushed over 50%, driven by increased demand from overseas travellers after South Africa’s removal from the red list in October.

Despite the travel bans that ensued in December 2021, the December occupancy for Cape Town was also above 50% due to strong domestic leisure support.

Room Supply Recovery
Occupancy levels achieved should always be viewed in the context of the recovery of room supply. When assessing the number of rooms contributing to STR data in 2021, Windhoek and Gaborone have achieved equivalent levels to 2019. Occupancy recovery levels for these
two markets are therefore more accurate. Room supply in Umhlanga, Sandton and Cape Town is notably down, with