‘It Will Be Like 50 Super Bowls Happening At The Same Time’

20.12.2023 - 00:39 / forbes.com / Michael Zeiler

Up to four million people could travel to see the total solar eclipse on April 8, 2024 in North America, making it the most significant travel event of the year, according to new research.

A new geographic model developed by expert eclipse cartographer and co-founder of GreatAmericanEclipse.com, Michael Zeiler, estimates that Texas will be the destination for most eclipse visitors next April 8, with a high estimate of just over a million visitors. The other two most popular states will be Indiana and Ohio at up to half a million people each, according to the model.

The last total solar eclipse occurred in the U.S. on August 21, 2017; the following will happen on March 30, 2033, in Alaska.

The model calculates the shortest drive paths from over 3,000 U.S. counties to destinations in the path of totality. On April 8, 2024, that path—the moon’s central shadow—will pass through parts of 15 U.S. states. It uses ArcGIS software, US Census data and a detailed digital road network for the U.S. and assumes that people who live close to the path of totality are more likely to visit than distant people. It also assumes that people will travel the shortest drive distance to the path of totality.

“It’s like having 50 Super Bowls happening at the same time all across the country,” said Polly White, co-founder of GreatAmericanEclipse.com, in an email. “The Super Bowl typically draws 80,000 people total, so multiply that by 50, and you have our high-range prediction for eclipse tourism.”

The figure only includes the U.S., where about 31 million people live in the 115-mile wide path of totality. Another 10 million live within its boundaries in Mexico and Canada. The path of totality will stretch from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic, with the moon’s shadow moving southwest to northeast from the Pacific coast of Mexico to Texas to the U.S. northeast and Atlantic Canada.

The narrow path of totality is everything for this event. It will cross parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. However, eclipse-chasers will need to be inside the path of totality. The rest of the country—even those standing just a few miles from the edges of the path of totality—will not experience darkness in the day or be able to look at the sun’s corona with the naked eye. Do not settle for a 90% partial solar eclipse—it’s not the same thing.

This new model confirms that some places—such as Kerrville, Texas—will be hectic. In Kerrville’s case, it’s on Interstate 10, so it will see many visitors from San Antonio. As many as 488,000. High numbers of travelers are also expected in Carbondale, Illinois, and around Indianapolis as