Airlines Forced to Wait Before Making the Most of China Reopening

25.08.2023 - 14:19 / skift.com / Delta Air Lines / United Airlines / Airlines

U.S. and European airlines will benefit from pent-up demand for travel to China after its recent border reopening, but route approvals, fresh Covid-19 testing rules and not enough large aircraft remain barriers to rising sales, analysts and industry officials say.

Travel is returning to China, the world’s largest outbound tourism market worth $255 billion in 2019, after the country ended mandatory quarantines on January 8. Airfares from China are now 160 percent higher than before the pandemic, data from travel firm ForwardKeys shows, due to limited supply.

Iowa-based lawyer Jinying Zhan, 50, said he paid $1,600 for a one-way ticket in December to fly via Chicago and Dubai to Guangzhou.

“I haven’t visited my family in three years, so I will go to the spring festival with my sisters,” he said. “Flights were very expensive.” Before the pandemic, he used to pay $1,000 to $1,500 for a round trip direct flight from Chicago.

A round-trip fare from San Francisco to Shanghai on United Airlines for a week-long trip in early March costs $3,852 in economy class and $18,369 in business class, according to a Reuters search on the airline’s website.

Global airlines are running only 11 percent of 2019 capacity levels to and from China in January, Cirium data shows, but the figure is expected to hit 25 percent by April.

Booking website Expedia said it saw U.S.-China and Europe-China searches double after the reopening announcement.

Chinese airlines, with ample staff and widebody planes, and a cost and time advantage of roughly two hours from flying a more direct route using Russian airspace, are expected to be early winners.

But U.S. and European airlines, which have focused traditionally on the strong business travel market to China, and often cater more to the preferences of Western passengers, are poised to benefit from companies willing to pay a premium to rekindle face-to-face ties.

Trips to China “are already on the books for many companies and travellers as they kick off a new business year,” said Suzanne Neufang, CEO of the Global Business Travel Association.

China’s reopening comes as surging Covid infections have led the United States, Japan and others to require negative coronavirus tests from Chinese arrivals, discouraging travel.

Since regulatory approval from both countries is required to add flights, at a time of U.S.-China trade tensions, short-term capacity could be limited, industry sources said.

United, which had 584 flights to and from China in January 2019 according to Cirium, can now fly four times weekly from the U.S. to mainland China. United said it could add services pending government authorizations.

Since January 4, Air China, Hainan Airlines and China Southern Airlines have filed